各位“高端存储知识”的读者朋友，新年好。
新的一年，我还是会漫不经心地分享一下我平时对存储行业的一些思考和知识，分享给大家。
今天，我突然想聊一下盘的事情。
大家都知道，现在的机械硬盘(HDD)厂商，只剩下三家了，他们就是希捷、西数和东芝。而且，这三个公司都不是最早做硬盘的。50-60年代做硬盘的先驱，没有一家坚持到最后。
据统计，历史上曾经最少有221个HDD厂商。一些已解散的制造商包括：
• Amcodyne
• Ampex
• Anelex Corp.
• Areal Technology- acquired by Tomen Corp in 1993
• Aura Associates
• Avatar Systems
• BASF
• Bryant Computer Products
• Burroughs Corporation- merged with Sperry Corporation to form Unisys in 1986
• Castlewood Systems
• Caelus Memories, Inc.
• CalComp
• Calluna Technologies
• Century Data
• Comport
• Computer Memories Inc.(CMI) - left industry in 1986
• Computer Memory Technology(CMT)
• Conner Peripherals- merged with Seagate in 1996
• Control Data Corporation(CDC) /Imprimis Technology- sold hard disk drive business to Seagate in 1989
• Cornice LLC- bankrupt in 2007
• Data General Corporation
• Data Products Corp.
• Data Recording Instruments(DRI)
• Dataplay(DPHI, DaTARIUS)
• Diablo Systems- became Diablo Data Systems in 1972
• Digital Equipment Corporation(DEC) - sold hard disk drive business to Quantum Corporation in 1994
• DZU(of Bulgaria) - converted from government-owned to private, and sold to Videoton_(company) in 1999
• ExcelStor Technology- left industry
• Fuji Electric
• Fujitsu- HDD division acquired by Toshiba in July 2009
• General Electric(GE)
• Gigastorage
• Hewlett-Packard(HP) - 1976 to 1996, left industry
• Hitachi Global Storage Technologies(HGST) - 2002 merger of Hitachi and IBM disk drive businesses, sold to Western Digital in 2012 with part of 3.5-inch manufacturing facilities going to Toshiba
• Hokushin Electric Works
• Honeywell Bull
• IBM- HDD business acquired by Hitachi Global Storage Technologies in 2002
• Information Storage Systemsacquired by Itel, then Univac and finally CDC
• Integral Peripherals- first rigid 1.8-inch drive; bankrupt in 1998
• Iomec
• Iomega- left industry
• ISOTof Bulgaria
• JT Storage(JTS) - bankrupt in 1999
• JVC- left industry
• Kalok- bankrupt in 1994
• LaCie- acquired by Seagate Technology in 2012
• LaPine Technologies
• Librascope
• Marshall Laboratories
• Matsushita- left industry in 2004
• Maxtor- acquired by Seagate in 2006
• Memorex- acquired by Burroughs 1981 and then merged into Unisys 1986; HDD division shut down in 1988
• Microcomputer Memories- left the industry
• Micropolis Corporation- bankrupt in 1997
• Microscience International- bankrupt in 1992
• MiniScribe- bankrupt and then acquired by Maxtor in 1990
• Ministor Peripherals- first mobile 1.8-inch drive; bankrupt in 1998
• Mitsubishi- left industry
• NEC- left industry
• Nippon Peripherals
• Nomaï
• Olivetti
• Pertec Computer
• Philips
• Plus Development - subsidiary of Quantum; created Hardcard; absorbed back into Quantum 1992
• Potter Instrument
• PrairieTek- first 2.5-inch rigid HDD; bankrupt in 1991
• Priam Corporation- 1978-1989, became Priam Systems Corporation in 1990 and sold product line to Prima International in 1991
• Quantum Corporation- sold HDD business to Maxtor in 2001
• Raymond Engineering
• Rodime- first 3.5-inch rigid HDD; shut down manufacturing in 1991; licensed its patents until the patent business was sold for $1.5 million in July 2003. The company was then the subject of a reverse merger and became Sportech PLC.
• Sagem
• Samsung- HDD business acquired by Seagate for $1.4 billion in 2011
• Seiko Epson
• Sequel
• Shugart Associates - Acquired by Xerox in 1977 and shut down in 1986.
• Siemens
• Sony
• Storage Technology Corporation(StorageTek or STK) - left industry
• Syquest- bankrupt in 1998; some patents acquired by Iomega. Re-emerged selling cartridges for their previously-discontinued products.
• Tandon Corporation- acquired by Western Digital in 1988
• Tulin Corporation- bankrupt
• Vertex Peripherals- acquired by Priam Corporation in 1985
我于是联想，未来的SSD厂商，是否也是一样的结局？
从目前的统计数据看，现在最少有179个SSD厂商了。
SSD Manufacturers(Country of HQs)
AC&NC (USA)
ADATA (Taiwan)
Active Media (USA)
Adlink Technology (Taiwan)
Allone Solution (Taiwan)
amp inc (USA)
Angelbird Technologies (Austria)
APdate (Germany)
Aplicata Technologies (Canada)
Asine (Israel)
Angelbird Technologies (Austria)
Apple - acquiring Anobit (USA)
Apacer Technology (Taiwan)
Apotop (Taiwan)
APRO (Taiwan)Asine (Israel)
ASUS Republic of Gamers (Taiwan)
ATP Electronics (Taiwan)
Avant Technology (USA)
Avexir Technologies (Taiwan)
Axtremex Technology (UK)
Beijing Memblaze Technology (China)
Bigboy Technologies (USA)
BiTMICRO Networks (USA)
Biostar (Taiwan)
Biwin Technology (China)
Buffalo Technology (Japan)
Cactus Technologies (Hong Kong, China))
Calvary Storage (USA)Cardwave Services (UK)
Centon Electronics (USA)
Colorful Technology (Shenzhen, China)
Conversant Intellectual Property Management (Canada) - formerly Mosaid
CoreRise Electronics (China)
CoreSolid Storage (Taiwan)
Corsair Memory (USA)
Crucial.com Micron (USA)
Curvature (USA)
Delkin Devices (USA)
Diablo Technologies (Canada)
Dolphin ICS (Norway)
Dulce Systems (USA)
EDGE Memory (USA)Elecom (Japan)
Emphase (USA)
Essencore (Hong-Kong)
EXCEEMO/PETERMANN-TECHNIK (Germany)
Extreme Engineering Solutions (USA)
Fadu (USA)
Fastor Systems (USA)
Flexxon Global (Hong Kong)
Foremay (USA)
Fortasa Memory Systems (USA)
Fujifilm (Japan)
Fusion-io - acquired by SanDisk (USA)
G.Skill (Taiwan)
GALAXY Microsystems (Hong Kong)
Gigabyte Technology (Taiwan)
Global Wireless Medium (China)
Green House (Japan)
Greenliant Systems (USA)
Hagiwara Sys-Com (Japan)
HGST - acquired by WD (USA)
Huawei (China)
IEI Technology (Taiwan)
Imation (USA)
IMSolution (Taiwan)
InnoDisk (Taiwan)
Insignis Technology (USA)
IoSwitch (USA)
Integral Memory (UK)
Intel (USA)
I-O Data Device (Japan)
JMR (USA)
Kimtigo (China)
Kingdisk Century Technology
Kingmax Technology (Taiwan)
KingFast (China)
KingSpec (China)
Kingston Digital (USA)
Ketron/Starex (Taiwan)
Legacy Electronics (USA)
Lexar Media (USA)
Liqid (USA)
Lite-On IT (Taiwan)
LSI / Avago / Broadcom (USA)
Mach Xtreme Technology (Taiwan)
Macronix (Taiwan)
Macrotron Systems (USA)
Mangstor (USA)
Memocom (Taiwan)
MemoRight (Taiwan)
MemxPro (Taiwan)
Mercury Systems (USA)
Micron Technology - and brand name Crucial - (USA)
Minerva Innovation (Taiwan)
Microsemi (USA)
Micross Components/Austin Semiconductor (USA)
Modix (Korea)
Most I&T Afaya (Taiwan)
Mushkin (USA)
MyDigitalSSD (Taiwan)
Myung Information Technologies (South Korea)
Netac Technology (China)
Netlist (USA)
NGD Systems (USA)
Nimbus Data (USA)
Novachips (Korea)
OCZ /Toshiba (USA)
Origin Storage (UK)
Ortial Technologies (UK)
OWC (USA)
Palit Microsystems (Taiwan)
Patriot Memory (USA)
PaxDisk (Korea)
Phoenix International Systems (USA)
Phison Electronics (Taiwan)
PhotoFast (Taiwan)
Plextor (Japan)
PNY Technologies (USA)
PQI (Taiwan)
Pretec (Taiwan)
Princeton Technology (USA)
pureSilicon (USA)
Ramaxel Technology (China)
Radian Memory Systems (USA)
Recadata (China)
Renice Technology (China)
Ritek/Ridata (Taiwan)
RunCore Innovation Technology (China)
Sage Microelectronics (China)
Samsung (South Korea)
SanDisk / WD (USA)
Seagate Technology (USA)
SecureDrives (UK)
Shenzhen New KingFast Storage Technology (China)
Silicon-Power (Taiwan)
Silicon Motion Technology (Taiwan)
SK Hynix (Korea)
SMART High Reliability Solutions (USA)
Smart IOPS (USA)
Smart Storage Systems (USA)
Solid Access (USA)
Solidata (China)
Soligen (USA)
Sonnet Technologies (USA)
Sony (Japan)
Storageflex (Canada)
Strontium Technology (Singapore)
Super Talent (USA)
Supertechina (Shanghai) Electronic
Swissbit (Switzerland)
Targa Systems (Canada)
TDK/CoreSolid Storage Corporation (Japan)
Team Group (Taiwan)
Techman Electronics (China)
TeleCommunication Systems Inc. (USA)
Texas Memory Systems (USA)
TIGO Technology (Taiwan)
Toshiba (Japan)
Trans International (USA)
Transcend Information (Taiwan)
Unigen (USA)
V&G Information Systems
V7/Ingram Micro) (USA)
Verbatim (Japan)
NGD Systems, Inc. (USA)
Viking Technology (USA)
Virident Systems (USA)Virtium (USA)
Waitan (China)
Walton Chaintech (Taiwan)
Waris Technologies (USA)
WD (USA)
Wilk Electronik (Poland)
Wintec Industries (USA)
X-ES (USA)
Zalman Tech (Korea)
Zotac (Hong Kong)
西瓜哥大概统计了一下，中国大陆的SSD厂商有华为等21家。
作为一个新年猜想，你说50年以后，全世界的SSD厂商是否和现在的HDD厂商一样，只剩下3-5家呢？
由于HDD的生产需要无尘环境，因此，工厂的投资还是比较大的。但是，SSD全部都是电子件，组装起来非常容易，因此，SSD厂商估计以后还会剩下不少，特别是做一些定制化的专用SSD厂商。但是，真正上规模的商用SSD厂商，我猜想50年后也不会超过10家，但估计比HDD现存的三家数量上多一些，我估计和服务器厂商的数量差不多。
至于谁会在未来留下，西瓜哥朋友圈很多人认为SSD的颗粒厂商最有机会。
现在给SSD提供NAND颗粒的主要厂商只有下面几家：
Manufacturers of NAND flash chips for SSDs:
Intel/Micronin Lehi, UT, Manassas, VA and Singapore (IMS)
Samsungin Austin, TX, China and Korea
Toshiba/WDin Japan
SK Hynixin China and Korea
Powerchipin Taiwan
当然，未来国内的长江存储应该也算进来，估计还有一些新的介质颗粒厂商会进来。
这些颗粒厂商做SSD应该有天然优势，但是，西瓜哥感觉电脑厂商应该也有机会，因为电脑厂商控制了销售渠道。
因此，我的猜想是50年以后，商用SSD厂商大约还有10家左右，颗粒厂商和电脑厂商应该最有机会。
你是如何认为的呢？欢迎在评论中反馈你的看法。